Sunday, November 30, 2008

Terrorism, job losses, poor Holiday spending will cause stocks to fall..

It's been a while since I have posted. Rights now it's Sunday 11/30/2008.

The dow is presently 8,829. On Monday, I predict good news will come out about people shopping on "Black Friday" but soon after, reports will come out again about job losses and more foreclosures.

Monday, stocks will rally and probably end up about closing 300 - 400 points lower, but they might even go over 9,000 points at sometime during the day.

During the middle of the week, bad news will come. By Friday stocks will close at about 8,200 to 8,500 points.

More terrorism will happen in countries or a country with strong ties to the US. Something weird is in the works with Russia.

If the dow hits 7,200 or below for more than 3 weeks, we are in big, big trouble.

I have a strong feeling about buying GM stocks, crazy as it may sound.

Oil will soon rise to about $55 a barrel as Opec cuts production to offset lack of consumption.

This slowing economy will effect everyone, even those with "good" jobs.

We are truly becoming more of a global economy in which we will become equal to other countries around the world. Standards of living will drop, people will have fewer children.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Some bad news coming today

Several pieces of data will be coming out today which will send jitters in the stock market. The dow will probably go down.

I have heard people saying that we are going to have a bad winter. If this is true, oil will go up. Opec and Associates are looking for any reason to increase oil prices.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Roller coasters do crash.. the Dow

So, the stocks took on over 900 points recently lost. Today, as I figured, stocks rallied a bit. I predict today the dow will close about 100 points down. Tomorrow (Wed) we will lose another 200 points. Thursday, the dow might close up 100 points but Friday, look out, they should close about 400 points down.

Sell what ever stocks you have. Stop contributing to anything, 401K's etc. Wait about 5 months.

Take a breather, pay off your credit card bills, all other debts.

Start buying less of what you really need, groceries etc.

Hold on to clothing longer, go to tag sales for clothes, tools etc. Take a train, bus or taxi when you need to get somewhere.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Feds cut rates to 1.5% SO WHAT !

Is cutting the interest rate going to bail us out of this financial crisis? No.

It looks good, I sit here and watch the S&P and NASDAQ going up about $1 every 30 seconds. This is just the market rallying.

Look at Asia, stocks plummeted.

2 TRILLION Dollars of pension fund investments lost. wow.

It's 9:53 and the dow is up 162 points, whoopie, we're saved, NOT.

We are in for long, hard times. We are truly becoming equal with the rest of the world.

I feel the dow will close down 100 points today. I think people are just rushing in to buy cheap stocks but at the same time, as the price of other shareholders stocks go up, they will sell creating this roller coaster effect.

Let's see what happens today.

Monday, October 6, 2008

The dow is "down" ! (as i predicted)

Wow, I hit this one on the head. In my posts in July and August I mention the down dipping below 11,000.

What's happening now is our "global partners" are also having to take a deep breath and wonder, "now what the hell do we do?"

Ha ha. Wow. This is going to get worse. 159,000 people lost their jobs in September. I also predicted this in my past blogs. Don't forget, I also mentioned in July that a report would come out about people falling behind on their credit card payments.

This will be another blow to the banks.

My solution, here is an idea:

1) Have the government buy 1 point off every one's loan for those people who purchased property between 2002 and 2007. Not on loans above $500 because these people should not have purchased a home for that much in the first place.

Here's an example. I'll use my loan. presently, my loan payment (30 year @ 5.25% LOCKED ) is $2167.05. If the Government lowers my interest rate by 1 point, making it 4.25% our mortgage payment, with taxes etc. would be lowered to $1974.21. That is a difference of $193.20 a month or $2316.00 per year.

Also, home owners should be givena tax credit of 2% of their current loan balance. If your loan balance is $420,000, you would get a tax credit of $8,400.00.

My wife and I are spending about $3,000 more for heating oil and gasoline just to get to and from work.

That's $3,000 right out of our pockets and the pockets of a million or more people.

This is exactly why people are losing their jobs. People have no money to put back into the economy. You want gas money to get to work or do you ant to go to the movies or out to dinner?. that's what it's come down to.

So, if the Government Really wants to help it's citizens, it needs to help the citizens, not the greedy banks who will receive money to give loans to people who have to have excellent credit. Due to this financial mess, most persons credit has been ruined, so we will have all this "loan" money which no one can touch except for, that's right, the wealthy.

get money back into the pockets of the MIDDLECLASS consumers!

Saturday, September 27, 2008

The bailout will fail

For several months I have talked to many business owners who have said basically that business is terrible.

This bail out, whatever it is, will probably be passed. It does not crate jobs, it does not stimulate the economy. Is everyone forgetting that the average American family is spending like $5,000 more per year in gasoline? Are we forgetting that people have no money to spend because food prices have risen?

Want to save everyone? Give a break on people's loans. In other words, if someone bought a house between 2002 and 2007, let's face it, they paid too much. This includes me and my wife. We paid $349,000 for our house in 2005. I would estimate about 10% over what it was really worth.

So, if the government really wants to keep people in their homes, they should buy 10% of the homeowners current loan amount. Then the Government should give a tax credit of about 5% of the CURRENT value of the home to homeowners who purchased homes between 2002 and 2007 with loan amounts NOT exceeding $500K.

We do not want homeowners to lose their homes because they are, after all, the ones who pay property taxes.

This would also help the homeowners with daily living expenses, food, gas, etc.

Just my idea.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Stocks Tummble, Hold on tight

It's been a while since my las post. I don't even know if anyone reads this. Well, I was wrong witht the price of oil hitting $145 a barrel, But it will go on a roller coaster ride. I think in the near future, It will get "back up there".

Demand will be weak and I think production will be cut.

Now, for the more interesting things happening. Several banks or "financial institutions" have gone broke. I had predicted this. Consumers confidence is really going to suck by October simply because middleclass people have no money.

Stimulus checks were funneled right into the pockets of speculators by making Americans pay $2 more for a gallon of gas. People just have no money.

The news networks make everything sound okay, but trust me, it's far from okay.

Oh, and I did predict that two major Hurricanes would hit the Gulf, I hit that nail on the head.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Georgia / Russia conflict

It seems the Georgian / Russian conflict is escalating.

Don't forget nw, Georgia is a friend to the U.S.

Could this drag us into another armed conflict?

With a major pipeline of oil and natural gas going through Georgia AND now Russian stocks are on the decline, let's see what's tragic event happens next?

The dow should drop lower this week. There are two tropical storms developing.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Civil unrest as I predicted

on August 5th I predicted that there would be civil unrest in an area that refines, produces or transports (pipeline) oil.

We have seen recently what is happening Between georgia and Russia.

The gas and oil pipelines that run through Georgia are of strategic importance to Western Europe because they reduce dependence on Russian supplies and do not cross Russian territory.

Two major pipelines take supplies from the oil and gas fields in the Azeri region of the Caspian Sea through the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. From there they head south, away from the breakaway South Ossetia region and into Turkey, then onwards into the European Union.

Civil unrest near major oil and gas pipelines

As most of us have seen on the news, Russia and Georgia are fighting.

The gas and oil pipelines that run through Georgia are of strategic importance to Western Europe because they reduce dependence on Russian supplies and do not cross Russian territory.
Two major pipelines take supplies from the oil and gas fields in the Azeri region of the Caspian Sea through the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. From there they head south, away from the breakaway South Ossetia region and into Turkey, then onwards into the European Union.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Everything is okay now, or is it?

Stocks are climbing, oil is falling, but thousands of families are still losing their homes and thousands more are losing their jobs.

Somewhere there will be unrest in an area that supplies a lot of oil, refines oil into gas or allows for the transporting of oil (pipelines).

Do not get too excited for now. It's going to be a long hard road ahead. When you start hearing of houses in the area staying on the market for over a year now even with a $20K decrease in the asking price, you have to face reality that this economy is failing.

Retail stores cutting back, closing stores. Hotels half full. Flights reduced, airline rates climbing.

We have a ways to go. I predicted that oil would hit $145 a barrel and I still hold my ground on that prediction.

We will also see at least TWO major hurricanes hit the east or gulf coast. I'm thinking more likely the Gulf coast.

By this Friday (Aug 8), stocks should plummet, the Dow should dip down to about 11,100.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Earthquakes, volcanos, floods...

Recently, there has been a lot of natural disasters occurring all over the world. One of the best places to read about this is . Next, global cooling. Millions of tons of ash from volcanoes shooting up into the atmosphere.
Some kind of other major catastrophe is close at hand.

Monday, July 28, 2008

That much for a taxi?

I have to share this. Yesterday I went to pick up a kid from "tap kids" at the Hampton inn hotel in elmsford. I walked in the door, found the kid (John) and he asked me how much it was to Westchester airport. $35, I answered. Then, a woman standing near the front desk yells, "$35 to Westchester airport? It's only 20 minutes away". Man, she caught me off guard there. All I could say to her was, "well yeah, every time I go to get gas, I say, but it's only oil pumped from the ground!"

What I should have told her was that my wife's Aunt was just charged $185.00 for an estimate for her home air conditioning system. What ever happened to "free quotes"?

What I should have asked her was, "what kind of work does you or your husband do?" and then compared the right to compensation for work performed.

By the way, it's not really 20 minutes, it's 40 minutes because we come back empty. 40 minutes of my time +wear and tear on taxi +traffic, +$7 worth of gas used, yeah, $35 is not that bad.

Stimulus checks for Oil?

Isn't it ironic that as soon as people started receiving stimulus checks from the government, the price of oil skyrocketed to record highs? Now, it seems everyone has used up their money, and the oil prices are coming down. This is just a "black helicopter" theory, but it does make you wonder. Was our money funneled right into the pockets of middle easterners? Was our money taken away from us so speculators could profit knowing that people would have to dig deep into their pockets to pay for much needed gas? Think about it.

Was I wrong? We'll see.

I predicted that oil would hit over $145, then suddenly, it dropped. Right now as I enter this info, it's at $123.00 a barrel. Watch, it will go to $145 soon. It's not over folks. Winter is coming, hurricane season and unrest in the middle east. I bet by the middle of August, it will be at about $140 a barrel.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Don't break out the bubbly yet !

Things seem great in the stock market huh? Don't hold your breath. Today is thursday July 17th, and some bad economic numbers should be rolling in from other parts of this "global economy". Enjoy this temporary good time.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Like I said, Dow dips below 11,000

Today, the dow dipped to 10,827.71 . At the same time, it was announced that oil dropped to around $138.65 a barrel. Don't be tricked. I bet by the end of today, the dow will close at around 11,005.00 oil will close at about $142.00.

By the end of this week, look at oil @ $145.00 a barrel. Instability somewhere will cause oil to reach about $155.00 by the middle of August.

There will also be some "not so good" job loss news by the last week of July.

Consumer confidence, well, what's left of it will be really bad news.

Watch your money in the banks

Hm. So indymac collapsed, who's next? Let's not forget this housing bubble started on the west coast and now this?

I'm telling my wife to reduce contributing to our mutual fund and we are going to watch our investments closely.

This economic situation is only the tip of the iceburg.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Over 2 weeks for Tarrytown taxi license

In late April I submitted all of my paper work to the village of Tarrytown to renew my taxi vehicle permit, taxi "hack" license and my business license.

Even though I submitted all of my paperwork in April, I had a hard time meeting up with the cop (Det. Byrnes) so he could take my fingerprints. It seems he is the only officer that can take fingerprints for taxi drivers? That makes no sense. Another thing that does not make sense is that he only performs this incredible feet on Fridays between 9:00 AM and 11:00 Am, um, if he's available. So being Friday is one of the busiest days in the taxi business, I just could not match up with this guy. I can't believe that no one else can do fingerprints.

One part of getting a taxi license in Tarrytown is getting your fingerprints done. What this means is a Police officer takes your fingerprints and ships them to Albany. When I asked Officer Byrnes why this is done he said "this is so we know if you have committed any crimes since the last time we took your fingerprints".

Funny, I thought to myself. I now that cops can put your name in a computer and find out all about your criminal record. I don't know, it just seems stupid. I also think that it is stupid since half the taxi drivers in Tarrytown don't even have taxi driving permits.

To be on the safe side, I went to Dobbs Ferry, applied for and received my taxi license in a week. The only reason it took this long is because the girl in the village clerk's office went away for 3 days or so. No fingerprints, no waits, just apply, pay and go to work.

So as far as Tarrytown, I wait and wait.

The dow will hit 10,000

I commented to a customer a few weeks ago that I wouldn't be surprised to see the dow dip below 11,000 and possible hit just above 10,000. Let's face it, the economy is getting really bad. I see more and more store fronts for sale or lease, more and more homes staying up for sale longer than 2 years ago.

I am also hearing more stroies of people having a hard time getting by. We won't know the real effect of the gas prices reaching historic prices for another 2 months. Everyone is using the evil plastic, credit cards.

Not only will we see the housing market continue to fall apart, come Late August, early September, we will see reports of people falling behind even more on their credit card payments.

We are in a recession, we've been in a recession. Being it is a very "political year", we can't take too serious government warnings and reports.

My first blog

Well, I figure with all the things I think and say and 95% of them coming true, I needed a place to post these comments to prove to myself and others that I am not as uninformed as some might think I am.